The biggest Presidential election upset occurred on Nov. 2, 1948. The incumbent was Harry Truman. He had succeeded Franklin Roosevelt and was attempting to be elected on his own. Success seemed inconceivable. His approval ratings were so low that the Democratic Party tried to dump him. Party leaders asked Gen. Eisenhower, but he refused. So did Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas. Some of the delegates at the convention wanted Sen. Claude Pepper, but he did not have enough support against a sitting President. Morale was low at the Democratic Convention as the vast majority of delegates did not think Truman could win. Feelings perked up when Truman gave a fiery acceptance speech. But in the weeks before the election, Democrats became increasingly pessimistic. To make matters worse, the Democratic Party was split. The Vice President before Truman, Henry Wallace, was nominated by the Progressive Party. This consisted of Democrats that were very liberal and/or those who opposed Truman’s containment policy toward communism. Because the Democratic Party platform called for civil rights legislation, southern Democrats walked out of the convention and formed the States’ Rights Party, known as the Dixiecrats. They ran segregationist Sen. Strom Thurmond. The Republicans decided to stick with their 1944 nominee New York Governor Thomas Dewey. Dewey had made a name for himself as a Mafia busting district attorney and was a popular governor. Since no one could have beaten FDR in 1944, the loss did not hurt Dewey’s standing.
Since all the polls and all the experts were sure Dewey was going to win, he ran a cautious, bland campaign. He did not take positions on most issues. Why should he? A newspaper editorial summarized his positions: “Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. Our future lies ahead.” Truman ran an opposite campaign. He traveled by train and gave speeches at even the smallest of towns (known as “whistlestops”, hence the “whistlestop campaign”). At one of the stops, someone yelled “Give ‘em Hell, Harry” and the nickname stuck. He openly criticized Dewey by name and pointed out his vague positions on the big issues. He tore into the Republican-controlled Congress (which had happened in a red landslide in 1946), calling it the ”Do-Nothing Congress”. The Republican platform called for liberal ideas like expanding social security and passing civil rights legislation. In a brilliant political move, Truman dared the Republican Congress to pass its platform. It did nothing.
Truman targeted farmers, union members (the Republicans had passed the Hawley-Smoot Act over his veto), Jews, and Catholics. His poll numbers began to rise, but he seemed well behind going into election day. 78% of newspapers endorsed Dewey. Newsweek magazine asked 50 experts and all of them thought Dewey was going to win. Many of Truman’s campaign staff were looking for new because they were sure he would lose. Of the ruling class, Truman was the only one who was confident of his victory. In fact, he went to bed early on election night. This guy. Newspapers all of the country prepared their Dewey victory stories early and just waited to run them. One major newspaper, decided to scoop its competition by publishing early. When Truman woke up in the middle of the night, he tuned into the radio to learn that he had won comfortably. He had 49.6 % of the vote and 303 electoral votes to Dewey’s 45% and 189. The two third party candidates had not fared as well as expected. Thurmond only carried four southern states. The four most racists states were apparently Mississippi (which voted 87% for Thurmond), Louisiana, Alabama, and his home state of South Carolina. He got only 2.4% of the popular vote and took 39 electoral votes away from Truman. Wallace took a few popular votes away with his less than 3% of the vote, but he carried no states. Truman’s win was the fifth in a row for the Democrats and showed the public was not quite ready to abandon the New Deal/Fair Deal. (It was ready in 1952.)
Historians have pondered since then how did Truman win? It still seems impossible and today of course would have been described by Republicans as a “rigged election”. There is no evidence that Dewey actually won. But how did Truman do it? There is no clear answer to that question. Personally, I believe a lot of voters were not excited about Truman, but Americans love an underdog and loved Truman’s combative campaigning. Enough decided at the last moment to throw the give ‘em hell guy a bone. The biggest upset in Presidential Election history will never be topped because polling is much better, although in 2016 it showed it still can be off.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_United_States_presidential_election
https://www.history.com/news/dewey-defeats-truman-election-headline-gaffe
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